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Projecting ‘The 256’

Before the Week 9 Games kickoff, we officially have 174 teams that have qualified for the MHSAA Football post-season.  I count 70 games that involve teams that are one win away from an automatic bid this weekend.  6 of those games have teams one win away going head to head.  I count 74 games that involved teams that have 4 wins.  Below is a spreadsheet with tabs (CLICK TABS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE SPREADSHEET) for;

  • The list of teams that have qualified as of today.
  • My loosely projected field of 256 teams based upon my predictions for this weekend and again, some loose and roughly estimated math.  The teams highlighted in BLUE are the teams I predict to get in automatically with a win this week.  The teams in GREEN are the teams that I predict will finish with 5 wins and get in with at-large berths, these are the ones that have the most room for error and change as the REAL results play out.
  • My projections of teams that are one win away that will get a win this weekend.
  • My projections on teams that have 4 wins and will get a win this weekend to become part of the at-large pool of teams available to fill in the empty slots.
  • And finally, after making my predictions, the list of teams that would be part of the at-large pool, based upon the results of this weeks’ games.  The column to the far right, if you scroll over, highlighted in YELLOW, is a very rough estimate of a playoff point average based upon predicted results from this weekend.  Those numbers are not entirely accurate but close enough for me to make an attempt to fill in the blanks.

Again, I remind you that the only thing that is concrete here, are the 174 teams currently in along with the list of games and teams that I have playing each other with 4 and 5 wins, heading into the final week of the regular season.

As the results come in over the weekend, late Friday night and Saturday/Sunday, I will update the real list of qualified teams and then begin to make MUCH better educated guesses on who the final field will shake out once we have the real playoff point averages post-week 9.  If you have any comments or questions, please comment at the bottom of the article.  One thing is almost for certain, we should again, have a good deal of at-large spots available.  My guesstimate is 31.

Here is the slate of teams & their Week 9 match-ups, that are one win away from automatic qualification.  Teams that are one win away are in bold, teams that I project to qualify with a win are bolded in BLUE.  Teams that are bolded in ORANGE are essentially teams I have projected to win by the slimmest of margins.

(6-2) L’Anse Creuse North @ (5-3) Dakota

(6-2) Oak Park @ (5-3) Southfield Arts & Tech

(5-3) Chippewa Valley @ (5-3) Anchor Bay

(4-4) Waterford Mott @ (5-3) Howell

(5-3) Lake Orion @ (8-0) Bloomfield Hills

(1-7) Fraser @ (5-3) Romeo

(5-3) Rochester @ (1-7) Stoney Creek

(5-3) Churchill @ (4-4) South Lyon

(5-3) Jenison @ (7-1) Muskegon

(5-3) SCS Lakeview @ (4-4) New Haven

(7-1) DeWitt @ (5-3) Portage Northern

(4-4) Crestwood @ (5-3) Hamtramck

(5-3) Berkley @ (2-6) Royal Oak

(5-3) Wyoming @ (2-6) Forest Hills Eastern

(3-5) Pershing @ (5-3) Brother Rice

(5-3) Holly @ (7-1) Brandon

(5-3) Bay City Central @ (2-6) Bay City Western

(5-3) Greenville @ (4-4) Forest Hills Northern

(5-3) East Lansing @ (2-6) Okemos

(5-3) Orchard Lake St. Mary’s Vs. (8-0) Detroit CC

(1-7) Detroit CMA Vs. (5-3) Cody

(5-3) Trenton @ (0-8) Kennedy

(5-3) NB Huron @ (0-8) Summit Academy

(5-3) Lakeshore @ (3-5) Niles

(4-4) Sparta @ (5-3) Hamilton

(6-2) John Glenn @ (5-3) Adrian

(4-4) Ovid-Elsie @ (5-3) Cros-Lex

(7-1) Harper Creek @ (5-3) Whitehall

(5-3) Powers @ (8-0) Davison

(6-2) East Grand Rapids @ (5-3) South Christian

(5-3) Dowagiac @ (4-4) Paw Paw

(5-3) Sexton @ (0-8) Lansing Eastern

(5-3) Swan Valley @ (4-4) Yale

(5-3) Calvin Christian @ (5-3) Belding

(4-4) Pennfield @ (5-3) Olivet

(5-3) Almont @ (3-5) Avondale

(5-3) Shepherd @ (8-0) Ithaca

(6-2) Kalkaska @ (5-3) Grayling

(3-5) Brandywine @ (5-3) Buchanan

(7-1) Laingsburg @ (5-3) Durand

(5-3) Parchment @ (4-4) Stockbridge

(5-3) Whittemore-Prescott @ (5-3) Pinconning

(7-1) Roscommon @ (5-3) Harrison

(5-3) Michigan Center @ (5-3) Quincy

(5-3) Morley Stanwood @ (2-6) Lake City

(5-3) Lakeview @ (2-6) Central Montcalm

(1-7) Gladwin @ (5-3) Beaverton

(2-6) Hartford @ (5-3) Constantine

(3-5) Birch Run @ (5-3) Montrose

(5-3) Manchester @ (6-2) Homer

(5-3) Detroit Delta Prep @ (5-3) Detroit Edison

(7-1) Clare @ (5-3) Houghton Lake

(5-3) MH Madison @ (0-8) Lamphere

(6-2) Garber @ (5-3) Reese

(5-3) Bridgman @ (1-7) Centreville

(5-3) Galesburg-Augusta @ (3-5) Marcellus

(5-3) Cass City @ (2-6) Caro

(3-4) Ishpeming @ (5-3) Gwinn

(0-8) Star International @ (5-3) Lutheran Northwest

(5-3) Dansville @ (2-6) Maple Valley

(5-3) Nouvel CC @ (5-3) MP Sacred Heart

(7-1) Sand Creek @ (5-3) Petersburg-Summerfield

(1-7) Baldwin @ (5-3) Evart

(5-3) West Iron County @ (2-6) L’Anse

(0-8) Ashley @ (5-3) Pittsford

(5-3) Morenci @ (4-4) Madison

(5-3) Vestaburg @ (2-6) Saranac

(5-3) Fowler @ (6-2) Merrill

(3-5) White Pigeon @ (5-3) Colon

(3-5) Bark River-Harris @ (5-3) North Dickinson

Below is a list games featuring teams that are sitting at 4 wins and would need to win, just to stay alive and then would be part of the pool that gets drawn from for At-Large teams that are selected to fill out the field and get to 256.  Four win teams are in bold, the four win teams that are projected to win are bolded in RED.

(3-5) Waterford Kettering @ (4-4) Grand Blanc

(4-4) East Kentwood @ (3-5) Caledonia

(6-2) Franklin @ (4-4) Novi

(4-4) Farmington Hills Harrison @ (4-4) Oxford

(2-6) Farmington @ (4-4) West Bloomfield

(4-4) Holt @ (7-1) Grand Ledge

(3-5) Plymouth @ (4-4) Livonia Stevenson

(4-4) Lakeland @ (2-6) Milford

(7-1) Dearborn @ (4-4) Skyline

(4-4) Waterford Mott @ (5-3) Howell

(2-6) Mattawan @ (4-4) Kalamazoo Central

(1-7) Detroit Southeastern @ (4-4) Western International

(1-7) Douglass @ (4-4) East English

(4-4) Ypsi Lincoln @ (6-2) Belleville

(4-4) Port Huron @ (6-2) Port Huron Northern

(4-4) Midland High @ (7-1) Midland Dow

(4-4) Edsel Ford @ (6-2) Ferndale

(4-4) Crestwood @ (5-3) Hamtramck

(4-4) Jackson @ (2-6) Everett

(3-5) Fruitport @ (4-4) Mona Shores

(5-3) Churchill @ (4-4) South Lyon

(4-4) Reeths-Puffer @ (3-5) Kenowa Hills

(4-4) Carlson @ (3-5) Lincoln Park

(5-3) Greenville @ (4-4) Forest Hills Northern

(4-4) Mt. Pleasant @ (3-5) Heritage

(0-8) Goodrich @ (4-4) St. Johns

(8-0) Portland @ (4-4) Marshall

(4-4) Sparta @ (5-3) Hamilton

(2-6) Henry Ford @ (4-4) Osborn

(4-4) St. Clair @ (7-1) Cousino

(2-6) Seaholm @ (4-4) Notre Dame Prep

(4-4) Cesar Chavez @ (3-5) Lutheran Westland

(4-4) Jefferson @ (0-8) Owosso

(6-2) SCS South Lake @ (4-4) Warren Lincoln

(5-3) Swan Valley @ (4-4) Yale

(5-3) Dowagiac @ (4-4) Paw Paw

(4-4) Pennfield @ (5-3) Olivet

(1-7) Lee @ (4-4) Godwin Heights

(8-0) Lake Fenton @ (4-4) Williamston

(4-4) Hancock @ (3-5) Houghton

(2-6) Holton @ (4-4) North Muskegon

(4-4) Lutheran North @ (7-1) Richmond

(4-4) Carrollton @ (2-6) Bridgeport

(4-4) Harper Woods @ (0-8) Pontiac

(6-2) Grosse Pointe North @ (4-4) Marine City

(4-4) Bath @ (4-4) Perry

(2-6) Newaygo @ (4-4) Manistee

(5-3) Parchment @ (4-4) Stockbridge

(4-4) Ovid-Elsie @ (5-3) Cros-Lex

(7-1) Fitzgerald @ (4-4) Clintondale

(4-4) Hillsdale @ (6-2) Columbia Central

(4-4) Hemlock @ (0-8) Bullock Creek

(8-0) Schoolcraft @ (4-4) Delton Kellogg

(5-3) Morenci @ (4-4) Madison

(4-4) Blissfield @ (7-1) Hudson

(5-3) SCS Lakeview @ (4-4) New Haven

(4-4) St. Mary CC @ (7-1) Lansing Catholic

(5-2) Tawas @ (4-4) Oscoda

(3-5) Renaissance @ (4-4) Detroit Central

(4-4) Ecorse @ (2-6) Old Redford

(6-2) Lumen Christi @ (4-4) Beecher

(8-0) Reed City @ (4-4) McBain

(4-4) Lenawee Christian @ (4-4) Atherton

(4-4) Brown City @ (2-6) Capac

(4-4) Johannesburg-Lewiston @ (4-4) Harbor Springs

(4-4) Carson City-Crystal @ (0-8) Potterville

(0-8) Shelby @ (4-4) Hesperia

(6-2) Gaylord St. Mary @ (4-4) East Jordan

(7-1) Lawton @ (4-4) Decatur

(7-1) USA @ (4-4) Harbor Beach

(4-4) Melvindale AB&T @ (8-0) University Liggett

(4-4) Martin @ (3-5) Kalamazoo Hackett

(4-4) Parkway Christian @ (3-5) NorthPointe Christian

(0-8) Inland Lakes @ (4-4) Hillman

M. Anderson

The author M. Anderson

Co-Founder of the Varsity News Network, Web Designer, Amateur Photographer, Football Connoisseur and Administrator of a few thousand sites across the country.

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